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April 27 2009 11:12 PM EDT
FNM and FRE update - currently uninvestableAfter looking into FNM's income statement and balance sheet, the stock is as speculative as can be. The amount of leverage involved is astonishing, and I don't see how the government won't end up owning all of it. Same goes for FRE. For example, FNM has over $300B in short term (12 months) liabilities that it can't pay. The bottom line is there won't be any value here until the residential real estate market turns around, and by then the ownership structure will most likely have drastically changed. The portfolios will eventually look much better, but that does not mean the common shareholders will have much of a stake. So the most important question is: "What does the common stock represent?" I'll continue to look for a reason to buy it, but for now it's junk to me. |